Data shows that the annualized volatility of btc to cad over the past 30 days has reached 58%, significantly higher than the 47% of Ethereum against the Canadian dollar (ETH/CAD), with a standard deviation difference of 11 percentage points. In terms of specific fluctuation characteristics, the average intraday amplitude of Bitcoin in Q2 2025 was 7.3%, while that of Ethereum was only 5.8%. The order book of the Canadian exchange NDAX shows that the median bid-ask spread of BTC/CAD is 0.18%, which is 1.5 times that of ETH/CAD at 0.12%. Extreme fluctuation cases are more obvious: On June 12, 2025, when the US CPI data exceeded expectations, btc to cad soared by 14% in a single hour, while the increase of ETH/CAD during the same period was only 9%, reflecting Bitcoin’s high sensitivity to macro information.
The key factor is the difference in liquidity structure. Kaico’s analysis indicates that the average daily trading volume of BTC/CAD on major Canadian exchanges is 270 million Canadian dollars, which is 42% higher than the 190 million Canadian dollars of ETH/CAD. However, the depth of the order book shows a divergence – the average order volume of BTC within the 0.5% price range is only 68% of that of ETH. This weak liquidity was fully exposed in Grayscale’s victory in 2024: when the news was announced, btc to cad soared by 12% within five minutes, while the increase of ETH/CAD during the same period was controlled at 8%. The slippage of BTC market orders on the Bitfinex platform was as high as 1.2%, three times that of ETH.
The derivatives market amplifies the differences in volatility. Data from Deribit Exchange options shows that the median implied volatility of BTC weekly contracts is 62%, which is 17% higher than that of ETH at 53%. Especially when Canada implemented the Crypto Asset Markets Act in May 2025, the open interest of BTC put options soared by 190%, while that of ETH only increased by 85%, causing the BTC funding rate to fluctuate to an extreme value of -0.25% in a single day. Historical stress tests show that during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, the maximum drawdown of btc to cad reached 35%, while that of ETH/CAD was 28% during the same period, and the volatility difference widened to 7 percentage points.
The technical aspect and consensus mechanism also affect stability. The standard deviation of Bitcoin’s block generation time is 1.8 minutes, while under the Ethereum POS mechanism, the block interval error is controlled within 0.3 seconds. On-chain data shows that the frequency of large BTC transfers (>10 million Canadian dollars) averages 37 times a day, which is 2.1 times that of ETH. Such whale operations triggered a 18% single-day flash crash in March 2025. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the correlation risk: When the monthly fluctuation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar exceeds 3%, the 90-day correlation coefficient between btc to cad and ETH/CAD rises to 0.89. At this time, the fluctuation difference narrowens to within 5%, and the effect of diversified hedging weakens.
The current market environment is intensifying its divergence. The hawkish remarks from the Bank of Canada have led to a three-day volatility surge of btc to cad to 65%, while that of ETH/CAD was 52% during the same period. The ratio of outstanding derivatives contracts (BTC OI/ETH OI) rose to 2.3, approaching the peak in nearly two years, indicating that leveraged funds are more likely to trigger price fluctuations in BTC. For risk-sensitive investors, the 30-day volatility probability density distribution of ETH is more concentrated (kurtosis 3.1 vs. BTC 5.7), but if it breaks through the key resistance level, the momentum effect of BTC may bring an excess return of 35%, and the exposure needs to be dynamically adjusted in combination with the VIX index and Canadian dollar futures positions.